Benchmark: Troubled waters

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Mon, Sep 29, 2008
Oil Articles
Post by Amrita Ghaswalla, Oil Reporter

By Duncan Sutherland – Exclusive to Crude Investing News

Market news

Another rough day for investors this Monday. As it became clear that the American House of Representatives would reject the authorization law for the executive’s US$700 billion financial sector bailout plan, commodities began to tank. Oil futures shed more than US$10 of their value during the day, dropping to US$96.37 per barrel.

Given that stock markets everywhere are seeing deleterious effects, people are asking me where investors are putting their money. The answer is Treasury Bills. Three month bills are now yielding 0.32 per cent, down from 0.87 at the end of last week. This grim return indicates that the promise of your money’s continued existence come December is a good deal for many investors. To put it even more bluntly, T-bills are not offering a return much better than stuffing your money under your mattress and finding some change in the couch.

Further afield, Russian stocks have been demolished in the past weeks. The continuing slide reflects a combination of falling energy prices, severely curtailed liquidity, and investor wariness of government intervention in the economy and neighbouring states. Prime Minister Putin indicated today that Russia’s financial actors will see a bailout fund of their own that could approach US$50 billion, in conjunction with a US$10 billion contingency fund budgeted for stock market support.

Company news:

Oil’s malaise was clearly visible on the TSX today, as energy stocks were hemorrhaging value. Companies hit hardest include Canadian Natural Resources, (TSX:CNQ) which lost over CD$15 per share.

More optimistically, China’s state-run refiner Sinopec is to buy Tanganyika Oil Co. (TSX:TYK) for CD$31.50 per share, totaling $2.07 billion (CDN). China’s government will review the deal before it is finalized, reports AFP.

Also in good news, Irving Oil’s Saint John Refinery complex has not been adversely impacted by Tropical Storm Kyle. Though there have been a lot of hurricanes and tropical storms this year, the oil and natural gas industries have managed to escape with limited difficulties, unlike Cuba and Haiti.

Verenex Energy (TSX:VNX) has struck a new find in Libya’s Khadames Basin. The seventh strike for Verenex and Indonesia’s PT Medco Energi Internasional (JAK:MEDC) is certainly good news for the pair.

International news:

Shell has reason to breathe easier this week as Nigeria’s government responded forcefully to a unilateral ceasefire declared by the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, a confederation of militants that has orchestrated a series of attacks on the company’s oil infrastructure. Some 300 people were arrested by the country’s security services. Nigeria’s abysmal human rights record suggests that many of these people are currently being tortured and pressed for information that would lead to further military action against MEND.

Canada’s Conservative government has begun outlining the details of their environmental plans. As Alberta’s oil sand projects have become a favoured target of environmentalists, this was politically necessary. The policy side of it is rather nonsensical, though, feel analysts. Prime Minister Stephen Harper indicated that a renewed Conservative government would only allow oil exports to countries that comply with Canada’s carbon emissions standards. Ministers began hedging this statement almost immediately, as Environment Minister John Baird and Industry Minister Jim Prentice intimated that this proposal would likely be waived for America.

As the vast majority of oil sands exports go to America, such a waiver would render the proposed policy worthless. The conclusion investors should draw from this is that a renewed Conservative government would continue business as usual in Alberta’s oil patch. This “policy” is pure greenwashing.

Questions about this article? Leave a comment below or contact our editorial team at editor@resourceinvestingnews.com.

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