Barrel prices nosed upward of $115 on Monday, largely due to a sagging US dollar. Analyzing this in reference to last week’s barrel and dollar prices shows the extent to which crude is tied to currency differentials. The relationship is not one sided, either. For us Canadians, high oil prices are keeping our dollar near parity with that of our neighbours.
This column will not be trying to determine who started the war or who is in the right, but how the war might affect the future of Caspian oil extraction and Caucasian transhipment. Aside from the direct damage of the war, ripples will be felt throughout the Black Sea, Caucasian and Caspian regions, with somewhat paradoxical effects on who benefits and who is placed at a disadvantage.
There is little evidence that the conflict between Russia and Georgia has stemmed the slide in crude prices. On Friday, with Russian troops still in control of strategic cities like Gori, crude fell on Nymex trading. Analysts said: Traders have already priced in a large amount of geopolitical risk into the market. In addition, prices already had plenty [...]
Crude oil prices declined to a four-month low on Tuesday after Russia’s military operations ended in Georgia and the International Energy Agency forecast a steep decline in demand. Sucden analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov, was quoted as saying: Geopolitical concerns always provide good support to oil prices and this news should offer some relief to investors worried about exports of Azeri [...]
At this point, there are much more pressing threats to the pipeline’s continued functioning. A long simmering dispute between Georgia and Russia over the disputed South Ossetia region erupted into war. Reports on Monday morning confirmed that Russian forces had pressed along the Greater Liakhvi River, beginning to enter the city of Gori.
Monday, August 25, 2008