Oil prices are being pushed upwards by the impending arrival of tropical storm Gustav in the Gulf of Mexico. Gustav is projected to become “the largest hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Katrina”. Workers are already being evacuated from oil and gas rigs in the area, which has pushed up NYMEX oil futures past $117.
Barrel prices nosed upward of $115 on Monday, largely due to a sagging US dollar. Analyzing this in reference to last week’s barrel and dollar prices shows the extent to which crude is tied to currency differentials. The relationship is not one sided, either. For us Canadians, high oil prices are keeping our dollar near parity with that of our neighbours.
This column will not be trying to determine who started the war or who is in the right, but how the war might affect the future of Caspian oil extraction and Caucasian transhipment. Aside from the direct damage of the war, ripples will be felt throughout the Black Sea, Caucasian and Caspian regions, with somewhat paradoxical effects on who benefits and who is placed at a disadvantage.
At this point, there are much more pressing threats to the pipeline’s continued functioning. A long simmering dispute between Georgia and Russia over the disputed South Ossetia region erupted into war. Reports on Monday morning confirmed that Russian forces had pressed along the Greater Liakhvi River, beginning to enter the city of Gori.
India based Varun Shipping plans to invest $300 million this year to buy ships that aid in deep-water exploration for petroleum as demand for crude oil rises. For full story, click here
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