Another rough day for investors this Monday. As it became clear that the American House of Representatives would reject the authorization law for the executive’s $700 billion financial sector bailout plan, commodities began to tank. Oil futures shed more than $10 of their value during the day, dropping to $96.37 per barrel.
The expiration of October trading certainly played a disproportionate role in the record one-day gain, as it exercised a huge pressure on short positions. The meteoric rise also illuminates how much the vacillation is due to speculative activity.
Though ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) and Placid Refining Company are both receiving hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude from America’s federal reserves to continue refinery operations, and two rigs in the Gulf have been knocked adrift, the overall impact of Ike appears fairly benevolent to energy companies.
OPEC’s meeting tomorrow will almost certainly result in talk of cutting production, but not much in the way of concerted action. Member nations’ motivations are not synchronized, so consensus is exceedingly unlikely. Iran wants to impose OPEC-wide decreases, but the UAE thinks current levels are appropriate. Although OPEC will not move together on this issue, some countries (notably Saudi Arabia) are likely to retrench significant volumes.
Oil prices are being pushed upwards by the impending arrival of tropical storm Gustav in the Gulf of Mexico. Gustav is projected to become “the largest hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Katrina”. Workers are already being evacuated from oil and gas rigs in the area, which has pushed up NYMEX oil futures past $117.
Barrel prices nosed upward of $115 on Monday, largely due to a sagging US dollar. Analyzing this in reference to last week’s barrel and dollar prices shows the extent to which crude is tied to currency differentials. The relationship is not one sided, either. For us Canadians, high oil prices are keeping our dollar near parity with that of our neighbours.
Barrel prices were pushed gently northward in early trading on Monday, as a confluence of factors threatened supply and made it an attractive alternative investment. The dollar’s decline relative to the euro increased anti-inflation hedging activities in commodities.
This column will not be trying to determine who started the war or who is in the right, but how the war might affect the future of Caspian oil extraction and Caucasian transhipment. Aside from the direct damage of the war, ripples will be felt throughout the Black Sea, Caucasian and Caspian regions, with somewhat paradoxical effects on who benefits and who is placed at a disadvantage.
Although oil prices have declined from their highs, The energy sector is still an investing wild card. It will take just one bad news about terrorist attack, or event related to supply worries, to send the prices skyrocketing again. Further, in the long run, demand from emerging markets like China and India will send prices [...]
At this point, there are much more pressing threats to the pipeline’s continued functioning. A long simmering dispute between Georgia and Russia over the disputed South Ossetia region erupted into war. Reports on Monday morning confirmed that Russian forces had pressed along the Greater Liakhvi River, beginning to enter the city of Gori.
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