Another rough day for investors this Monday. As it became clear that the American House of Representatives would reject the authorization law for the executive’s $700 billion financial sector bailout plan, commodities began to tank. Oil futures shed more than $10 of their value during the day, dropping to $96.37 per barrel.
The expiration of October trading certainly played a disproportionate role in the record one-day gain, as it exercised a huge pressure on short positions. The meteoric rise also illuminates how much the vacillation is due to speculative activity.
This column will not be trying to determine who started the war or who is in the right, but how the war might affect the future of Caspian oil extraction and Caucasian transhipment. Aside from the direct damage of the war, ripples will be felt throughout the Black Sea, Caucasian and Caspian regions, with somewhat paradoxical effects on who benefits and who is placed at a disadvantage.
Think of how your day would go if you couldn’t use the internal combustion engine, plastic, most electricity, the products of commercial agriculture or anything that has traveled by ship.
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